With the prospect of Spring came progress in the reduction of risks to health from COVID-19 in the UK with significantly reduced numbers of new cases and the vaccination of over 50% of the adult population. Children returned to school.
The UK left the ‘top twenty’ countries with the highest number of daily new cases per million population on 24 February but there remained cause for real concern across Europe and the rest of the world. On 31 March 24 countries in Europe were reporting more than 200 new cases per day per million population, the same number of countries as on 1st January. That the UK is no longer amongst those worst affected does not imply that the overall threat from COVID-19 has yet been reduced and there is huge danger in continued insularity.
In the light of this continued international disputes about the efficacy and availability of vaccines were concerning. At the end of the month the Government warned of possible interruption to the supply chain and consequent delays to the vaccination programme. Meanwhile public argument between the UK and the EU continued, including a statement by Ursula von der Leyen that, ‘We have the option of banning a planned export’. Italy blocked the export of 250,000 doses of vaccine to Australia because it needed them for itself.
Statistics published in March showed that exports to the EU from the UK fell by 40% in January, and imports by 28%. A number of European countries suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine following concerns about associated cases of blood clots, although the number of reports cited did not exceed that recorded in the general population under routine conditions.
In his budget speech the Chancellor announced that forecast borrowing would peak at 93% of GDP, the highest level since 1962. Despite the focus of the Government’s statement being ‘on jobs’ Corporation Tax was increased by 16%. There was some irony and significant outcry in the announcement of a pay increase of only 1% for NHS workers.
Amidst a crisis of personal and political integrity, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon survived a vote of no confidence by the Scottish Parliament. Boris Johnson's senior adviser on ethnic minorities announced his resignation, amid a row over a government-commissioned report on race.
While the focus remains overwhelmingly on the health risks of COVID-19, events across the world attracted comparatively less attention. Details have been missed, including for example that in buying the Russian Sputnik V vaccine the African Union has been charged three times more per dose than it would have been for Oxford-AstraZeneca. And major events have passed almost unnoticed. In Myanmar well over a hundred protesters were killed during March after Aung San Suu Kyi appeared in court charged with sedition; ‘massacres and atrocities’ were reported from Ethiopia’s internal conflict in northern Tigray; in Mozambique religious fundamentalists occupied the northern coastal town of Parma amidst reports of widespread murder and rape; in Armenia the Army gave the Prime Minister an ultimatum to resign; the US conducted an air-strike against Iranian backed militia in Syria and announced sanctions on Russia over the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of responsibility for an explosion that damaged an Israeli owned ship in the Gulf of Oman. The UK cut aid to the Yemen by 60%. Meanwhile Pope Francis visited Iraq where he met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age, the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development, and Foreign Policy’ was published on 16th March. It might be pedantic to point out the country is officially called the United Kingdom, but frequently such details matter. The Review was framed around four overarching objectives: sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology; shaping the international order of the future; strengthening security and defence at home and overseas; and building resilience at home and overseas. Unfortunately, the shape, depth, and detail of the Review provided much opportunity for critical comment. The Review was followed a week later by publication of the separate – but presumably similarly integrated – ‘Defence in a Competitive Age’. This announced the reduction of the Army strength by 15% over the next four years in pursuit of ‘increased deployability and technological advantage’ with ‘greater effect being delivered by fewer people’.
The One Year Report on the Coronavirus Act 2020 was presented to Parliament on 22nd March. The Act provided for the Government to assume Emergency Powers short of enacting the provisions of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, essentially to act within parameters without direct and continuous parliamentary scrutiny. Twelve sections of the Act were recommended for deletion, including the extension of time limits for the retention of fingerprints and DNA profiles. Powers relating to controlling potentially infection persons, and to issue direction relating to public gatherings and events remain in statute. The Government is required to produce its next report on the Act in May 2021.
Whilst the focus was on the anniversary of the Coronavirus Act 2020 and its associated report, on 29th March the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021 came into force. This was a Statutory Instrument used by the Secretary of State for Health to provide legislation under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. The legislation applies only to residents of England and includes restrictions on gatherings together with the stipulation that ‘No person may, without reasonable excuse, leave England to travel to a destination outside the United Kingdom’. As a Statutory Instrument the legislation was not debated in Parliament.
In the Hague, water cannon and mounted police were used to disperse anti-lockdown protestors whilst 200 police officers were reported to have been injured in Bristol during a protest against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill, which reached the Committee stage in the House of Commons during March. The Bill provides significant additional powers to the police to limit and control demonstrations and public gatherings. On 14th March the Metropolitan Police was heavily criticised for what was widely perceived to be a disproportionate response to a vigil on Clapham Common aimed at publicising violence against women. A subsequent investigation found the police response to be acceptable and ‘measured’ although concerns were expressed about strategic and tactical communication around the approach to policing the event.
The UK left the ‘top twenty’ countries with the highest number of daily new cases per million population on 24 February but there remained cause for real concern across Europe and the rest of the world. On 31 March 24 countries in Europe were reporting more than 200 new cases per day per million population, the same number of countries as on 1st January. That the UK is no longer amongst those worst affected does not imply that the overall threat from COVID-19 has yet been reduced and there is huge danger in continued insularity.
In the light of this continued international disputes about the efficacy and availability of vaccines were concerning. At the end of the month the Government warned of possible interruption to the supply chain and consequent delays to the vaccination programme. Meanwhile public argument between the UK and the EU continued, including a statement by Ursula von der Leyen that, ‘We have the option of banning a planned export’. Italy blocked the export of 250,000 doses of vaccine to Australia because it needed them for itself.
Statistics published in March showed that exports to the EU from the UK fell by 40% in January, and imports by 28%. A number of European countries suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine following concerns about associated cases of blood clots, although the number of reports cited did not exceed that recorded in the general population under routine conditions.
In his budget speech the Chancellor announced that forecast borrowing would peak at 93% of GDP, the highest level since 1962. Despite the focus of the Government’s statement being ‘on jobs’ Corporation Tax was increased by 16%. There was some irony and significant outcry in the announcement of a pay increase of only 1% for NHS workers.
Amidst a crisis of personal and political integrity, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon survived a vote of no confidence by the Scottish Parliament. Boris Johnson's senior adviser on ethnic minorities announced his resignation, amid a row over a government-commissioned report on race.
While the focus remains overwhelmingly on the health risks of COVID-19, events across the world attracted comparatively less attention. Details have been missed, including for example that in buying the Russian Sputnik V vaccine the African Union has been charged three times more per dose than it would have been for Oxford-AstraZeneca. And major events have passed almost unnoticed. In Myanmar well over a hundred protesters were killed during March after Aung San Suu Kyi appeared in court charged with sedition; ‘massacres and atrocities’ were reported from Ethiopia’s internal conflict in northern Tigray; in Mozambique religious fundamentalists occupied the northern coastal town of Parma amidst reports of widespread murder and rape; in Armenia the Army gave the Prime Minister an ultimatum to resign; the US conducted an air-strike against Iranian backed militia in Syria and announced sanctions on Russia over the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of responsibility for an explosion that damaged an Israeli owned ship in the Gulf of Oman. The UK cut aid to the Yemen by 60%. Meanwhile Pope Francis visited Iraq where he met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age, the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development, and Foreign Policy’ was published on 16th March. It might be pedantic to point out the country is officially called the United Kingdom, but frequently such details matter. The Review was framed around four overarching objectives: sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology; shaping the international order of the future; strengthening security and defence at home and overseas; and building resilience at home and overseas. Unfortunately, the shape, depth, and detail of the Review provided much opportunity for critical comment. The Review was followed a week later by publication of the separate – but presumably similarly integrated – ‘Defence in a Competitive Age’. This announced the reduction of the Army strength by 15% over the next four years in pursuit of ‘increased deployability and technological advantage’ with ‘greater effect being delivered by fewer people’.
The One Year Report on the Coronavirus Act 2020 was presented to Parliament on 22nd March. The Act provided for the Government to assume Emergency Powers short of enacting the provisions of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, essentially to act within parameters without direct and continuous parliamentary scrutiny. Twelve sections of the Act were recommended for deletion, including the extension of time limits for the retention of fingerprints and DNA profiles. Powers relating to controlling potentially infection persons, and to issue direction relating to public gatherings and events remain in statute. The Government is required to produce its next report on the Act in May 2021.
Whilst the focus was on the anniversary of the Coronavirus Act 2020 and its associated report, on 29th March the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021 came into force. This was a Statutory Instrument used by the Secretary of State for Health to provide legislation under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. The legislation applies only to residents of England and includes restrictions on gatherings together with the stipulation that ‘No person may, without reasonable excuse, leave England to travel to a destination outside the United Kingdom’. As a Statutory Instrument the legislation was not debated in Parliament.
In the Hague, water cannon and mounted police were used to disperse anti-lockdown protestors whilst 200 police officers were reported to have been injured in Bristol during a protest against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill, which reached the Committee stage in the House of Commons during March. The Bill provides significant additional powers to the police to limit and control demonstrations and public gatherings. On 14th March the Metropolitan Police was heavily criticised for what was widely perceived to be a disproportionate response to a vigil on Clapham Common aimed at publicising violence against women. A subsequent investigation found the police response to be acceptable and ‘measured’ although concerns were expressed about strategic and tactical communication around the approach to policing the event.
Author
Andrew Firth, CEO, The Decision Problem
