Many would consider 2020 to be a year to forget. 2021 therefore was optimistically looked to as a new dawn. This New Year came with the opportunity to consign to history the tragedy and travail of the year of COVID and move into a world of the ‘new normal’. Where does the UK stand at the end of the first month of 2021?
The New Year began under the restrictions of a third national lockdown, with Boris Johnson maintaining that it would be ‘the final phase of the struggle’ against COVID-19. A further £4bn was identified to support retail, hospitality, and leisure. However, significant confusion remained about the detail of the restrictions, not least between the four increasingly divergent parts of the United Kingdom. As The Spectator remarked, “In Scotland, golf courses remained open and churches were closed. In England, churches remained open and golf courses closed.” Promises were made to keep schools open and immediately withdrawn. More regulatory detail followed, with threats of harsher measures to come under Emergency Powers legislation, which is not due to be debated again until March.
A national vaccination programme began with the aim of providing a first dose to the entire adult population by September. The programme gained momentum during the month, quickly becoming the focus for optimism and the central plank of the Government’s recovery strategy. By the end of the month the campaign was on target to have achieved 15 million doses by Valentine’s Day.
As January closed, new variants of the virus have caused the implementation of further restrictive measures, including international travel restrictions. The UK in January was a country struggling to operate amidst severe physical constraints. Risk to the economy has also been rapidly increasing, as well as the risk to the UK’s social fabric. The response strategy has been plagued by confusion, contradiction and inconsistency. By the end of the month, case numbers have shown signs of reduction but restrictions will continue well into February. For a significant proportion of the population, the COVID response may now appear Sisyphean. There is a danger that the government may become perceived to be increasingly authoritarian without the finesse of well-designed and implemented strategy to complement the control measures. Consensus and compliance are much easier bedfellows than are compliance and coercion.
At the end of the month the Prime Minister visited ‘front line’ workers in Scotland, drawing heavy criticism from First Minister Nichola Sturgeon who described his journey as unnecessary. Scottish Nationalist rhetoric increased at the start of the year during which elections will be held to the Scottish parliament.
The huge national and international challenge that is COVID-19 would be enough to divert any government from its preferred agenda, but in January the UK wrestled with two such complex problems simultaneously. Following the end of the withdrawal transition period on 31 December 2020, January saw the first month of post-BREXIT UK. Despite widely expressed fears, and no little amount of complaint about apocryphal details, the country has largely continued to conduct business as usual…or as usual as can be expected in a global pandemic.
There has been some negative effects of BREXIT, particularly on customs regulation and shipping costs. The Government is clearly under pressure to apply resources to the detail of managing post-BREXIT policy, strategy, and planning whilst dealing with the response to COVID. Late in the month a more serious dispute was played out as COVID and BREXIT came together as the EU objected to the shipment of vaccinations into the UK and particularly across the border of Eire into Northern Ireland. The wholly unnecessary dispute was nasty, brutish, and short. Wiser heads prevailed but not before an unfortunate baptism for the new relationship.
Meanwhile it was announced that in the months of January the population of London alone has reduced by almost 8%, largely as a result of 1.3 million immigrants leaving the country. The Chancellor hinted that tax increases may be central to the budget in March.
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum was held ‘virtually’ in Davos at the end of the month. During the week French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that modern capitalism ‘can no longer work’ due to increasing concerns about climate change and inequality. The gathering’s theme was global coordination of the response to and recovery from COVID-19. Eighteen Heads of State including those of China, India, and Russia supported the assembly as co-chairs. The US and the UK were both remarkable by their apparent absence, despite the former assuming the Presidency of the G7 group of nations in January.
The nation looked on in horror as five people died when hundreds of Donald Trump supporters rioted inside the Capitol Building with the aim of stopping the Presidential Endorsement Vote by violent protest. The world was reminded that chilling threat of authoritarian nationalism was not consigned to history and does not run very far under the surface of democratic government.
January has not been an easy beginning to the long-awaited promise of the New Year. The pressure of COVID continues, BREXIT is demanding scarce resources of political and managerial energy and time, and clear communication of policy, strategy, and planning appears elusive. At the end of the first month of 2021 there is a dangerous perception that the government has lacked the grip and drive that it promised and of which it is surely capable. It may be that in order to truly restore consensus it requires increased coordination, consultation, and creativity in addressing the two immense challenges that it faces.
The New Year began under the restrictions of a third national lockdown, with Boris Johnson maintaining that it would be ‘the final phase of the struggle’ against COVID-19. A further £4bn was identified to support retail, hospitality, and leisure. However, significant confusion remained about the detail of the restrictions, not least between the four increasingly divergent parts of the United Kingdom. As The Spectator remarked, “In Scotland, golf courses remained open and churches were closed. In England, churches remained open and golf courses closed.” Promises were made to keep schools open and immediately withdrawn. More regulatory detail followed, with threats of harsher measures to come under Emergency Powers legislation, which is not due to be debated again until March.
A national vaccination programme began with the aim of providing a first dose to the entire adult population by September. The programme gained momentum during the month, quickly becoming the focus for optimism and the central plank of the Government’s recovery strategy. By the end of the month the campaign was on target to have achieved 15 million doses by Valentine’s Day.
As January closed, new variants of the virus have caused the implementation of further restrictive measures, including international travel restrictions. The UK in January was a country struggling to operate amidst severe physical constraints. Risk to the economy has also been rapidly increasing, as well as the risk to the UK’s social fabric. The response strategy has been plagued by confusion, contradiction and inconsistency. By the end of the month, case numbers have shown signs of reduction but restrictions will continue well into February. For a significant proportion of the population, the COVID response may now appear Sisyphean. There is a danger that the government may become perceived to be increasingly authoritarian without the finesse of well-designed and implemented strategy to complement the control measures. Consensus and compliance are much easier bedfellows than are compliance and coercion.
At the end of the month the Prime Minister visited ‘front line’ workers in Scotland, drawing heavy criticism from First Minister Nichola Sturgeon who described his journey as unnecessary. Scottish Nationalist rhetoric increased at the start of the year during which elections will be held to the Scottish parliament.
The huge national and international challenge that is COVID-19 would be enough to divert any government from its preferred agenda, but in January the UK wrestled with two such complex problems simultaneously. Following the end of the withdrawal transition period on 31 December 2020, January saw the first month of post-BREXIT UK. Despite widely expressed fears, and no little amount of complaint about apocryphal details, the country has largely continued to conduct business as usual…or as usual as can be expected in a global pandemic.
There has been some negative effects of BREXIT, particularly on customs regulation and shipping costs. The Government is clearly under pressure to apply resources to the detail of managing post-BREXIT policy, strategy, and planning whilst dealing with the response to COVID. Late in the month a more serious dispute was played out as COVID and BREXIT came together as the EU objected to the shipment of vaccinations into the UK and particularly across the border of Eire into Northern Ireland. The wholly unnecessary dispute was nasty, brutish, and short. Wiser heads prevailed but not before an unfortunate baptism for the new relationship.
Meanwhile it was announced that in the months of January the population of London alone has reduced by almost 8%, largely as a result of 1.3 million immigrants leaving the country. The Chancellor hinted that tax increases may be central to the budget in March.
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum was held ‘virtually’ in Davos at the end of the month. During the week French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that modern capitalism ‘can no longer work’ due to increasing concerns about climate change and inequality. The gathering’s theme was global coordination of the response to and recovery from COVID-19. Eighteen Heads of State including those of China, India, and Russia supported the assembly as co-chairs. The US and the UK were both remarkable by their apparent absence, despite the former assuming the Presidency of the G7 group of nations in January.
The nation looked on in horror as five people died when hundreds of Donald Trump supporters rioted inside the Capitol Building with the aim of stopping the Presidential Endorsement Vote by violent protest. The world was reminded that chilling threat of authoritarian nationalism was not consigned to history and does not run very far under the surface of democratic government.
January has not been an easy beginning to the long-awaited promise of the New Year. The pressure of COVID continues, BREXIT is demanding scarce resources of political and managerial energy and time, and clear communication of policy, strategy, and planning appears elusive. At the end of the first month of 2021 there is a dangerous perception that the government has lacked the grip and drive that it promised and of which it is surely capable. It may be that in order to truly restore consensus it requires increased coordination, consultation, and creativity in addressing the two immense challenges that it faces.
AUTHOR
Clemmie Taylor Smith, Researcher, The Decision Problem
Clemmie Taylor Smith, Researcher, The Decision Problem
